Birth Rates, School Closures and Where to Locate a School

Falling U.S. birth rates mean fewer school-age children in many neighborhoods, and that shrinks the local market for children’s martial arts programs. The CDC reports about 3.6 million U.S. births in 2025 and a record-low general fertility rate, and public school enrollment has been declining since 2019. The decline is uneven, though: urban districts are losing students faster than suburban and rural ones, and some states are still growing. For martial arts school owners, the practical response is to treat location as a demographic decision: follow young families, watch elementary school enrollment near your school, and adjust your marketing to where the children are.

At the October 4, 2026 Martial Arts Wealth Mastery “Million Dollar School” session, Grand Master Stephen Oliver, CEO and Chairman of NAPMA and Publisher of Martial Arts Professional, raised a risk most school owners don’t track: the elementary school down the street may not be there in five years. Low fertility, he warned, puts nearly every kids’ program at risk of losing its nearest elementary school to closure or consolidation.

How fast are U.S. birth rates falling?

The national data points one way. According to provisional figures released by the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics in April 2026, as reported by KSL:

• The United States recorded about 3.6 million births in 2025, down about 1% from 2024.
• The general fertility rate fell to 53.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44, a record low.
• That rate has declined by nearly 23% since 2007.

That leaves U.S. fertility well below the replacement level of about 2.1 children per woman, the rate needed to keep a population stable without immigration.

What is happening to school enrollment?

Fewer births work their way into classrooms about five years later. FutureEd’s analysis of federal data shows public school enrollment falling from about 50.8 million in fall 2019 to 49.4 million in 2024, and the National Center for Education Statistics projects it could drop below 47 million by 2030.

For a martial arts school, that’s the core market. Most children’s programs draw heavily from students ages 4 to 12 who live within a short drive.

Is the decline the same everywhere?

No, and that’s the part school owners can act on. Reporting by The 74 found that:

• 41 states saw public school enrollment decline between 2019 and 2023.
• Urban districts lost about 4% of enrollment, compared with about 1% to 2% for suburban and rural districts.
• Ten states, mostly in the South and Midwest, gained students.
• By 2030, 23 states are projected to lose 5% or more of their enrollment.

National averages hide large local differences. A school in a neighborhood of aging homeowners can lose its feeder base, while a school five miles away near new housing and young families can have more children than ever.

How should martial arts schools think about location?

Grand Master Oliver described his own practice over decades of running schools: he moved locations over the years toward population growth and away from neighborhoods where families had become empty nesters. His advice was to be aware, for both location and marketing, of where children have aged out and where the new elementary-age kids are.

Practical steps:

• Track your nearest elementary schools. Most districts publish enrollment by school. Look at the five-year trend for every elementary school within your drive radius.
• Watch district announcements. Closure and consolidation plans are usually discussed publicly a year or more before they happen.
• Follow new housing. New subdivisions and apartment complexes aimed at young families are leading indicators.
• Map your current students. Plot enrollments by address. If new enrollments are coming from farther away each year, your neighborhood may be aging around you.
• Time lease decisions. A lease renewal is the cheapest moment to move toward growth. Look at the demographics before you sign another five years.
• Shift marketing before you shift location. School partnerships, flyers and community events can target growing areas well before a move.

What does this mean for the message?

A smaller pool of children also means each family is worth more, and parents today worry about different things. In the same session, the presenters discussed the concerns parents report most: low confidence, screen time and social media, anxiety, poor focus, giving up too easily, bullying and loneliness. Schools that speak directly to resilience, real friendships and physical activity will compete better for a shrinking number of kids.

Grand Master Oliver was also optimistic about one trend. As AI automates more of the administrative and marketing work in a school, he argued, in-person instruction and face-to-face conversations with families become more valuable, not less. A smaller market rewards schools that do those things well.

The takeaway

Demographics change slowly, then all at once for a school whose feeder elementary closes. Owners who check enrollment data once a year, follow young families and treat every lease as a location decision will be better placed than those who assume their neighborhood will always look the way it did when they opened. For more on how the industry has adapted to past shifts, see the history of the martial arts business in North America.